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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Manifold·Science and Technology
41%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M149.1k
vol 24h
M532
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 2, 2028
YES 41¢
NO 59¢

Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked. This won't resolve positively if he has to use bizarre hacking-like tricks, for example things equivalent to the SolidGoldMagikarp token.

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opened · Feb 20, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2028
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? · prices over time
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