By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
As of 05:30 UTC on 25 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)” at 89%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.