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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
89%
vol cum
M55.5k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 89¢
NO 11¢
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
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opened · Sep 16, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2030