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By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 19:52 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)” at 94%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

94%
vol cum
M30.8k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 94¢
NO 6¢

The first question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the comprehension challenge in The New Yorker, in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.

timeline
opened · Sep 16, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1) · prices over time
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