What is the current probability for "In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?"?

"YES" is currently 41% (+5pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 2, 2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

·Science and Technology

41%

▲ 4.9pp

24h change

vol cum

M14M

vol 24h

M32.2k

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 2, 2028

YES 41¢

NO 59¢

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

timeline

opened · Feb 20, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2028

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history