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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:35 UTC on 10 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)” at 56%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

56%
vol cum
M15.6k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 56¢
NO 44¢

The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark)." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end. Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens It does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use It does not need to be able to work in any Michelin restaurant or make every dish It does not need to navigate an adversarially designed kitchen

timeline
opened · Sep 16, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) · prices over time
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