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In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)” at 77%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.

77%
vol cum
M19.6k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 77¢
NO 23¢

The fifth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end. I will accept if there is an AI that can do this for >=75% of the proofs published on the arxiv math categories in 2029.

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opened · Sep 16, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
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