In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 21:52 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?” at 51%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

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Jan 2, 2028

IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge". It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist. Has to be be at least 50,000 words. I will not trade in this market.