What is the current probability for "Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout"?

"YES" is currently 12% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/EnEgzsQSd8. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

·Science and Technology

12%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M33.9k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

YES 12¢

NO 88¢

On February 8 Discord announced global age verification requirements for accessing 18+ channels and servers. Users will either submit government IDs or an AI facial scan if Discord cannot determine internally whether a user is an adult. Resolution This market resolves YES if discord cancels, delays indefinitely, or removes the ID and facial scan requirement from their rollout. This market resolves NO upon discord rolling out the feature. This includes a phased rollout where the first batch of users are verified. This does not include regional rollouts to comply with local laws. This market resolves YES if discord has made no announcement by the market deadline. However, the deadline will extend should discord announce a new timeframe within 2026. Update: Discord has just announced a definite delay to H2 2026. The deadline is now December 31, 2026. Per the original resolution criteria no further extensions shall be made. There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

timeline

opened · Feb 10, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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