Question 1

What is the current probability for "Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?": Elon Musk 39%, Other 25%, Jensen Huang 8% (top 3 of 37 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2030.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/G8tQJHqFDxjjVVl4Xgrj. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

similar markets