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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

82%
▲ 7.2pp
24h change
vol cum
M40.9k
vol 24h
M1.3k
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 2, 2028
YES 82¢
NO 18¢
Resolves positively if there is an AI can learn to play randomly selected computer games (shooters, strategy games, flight simulators, etc) at the level of an amateur but not completely incompetent human player, given only a small amount of time (days, not years) for its programmers to connect it properly, and the opportunity to practice for arbitrary (but achievable) amounts of time. I will resolve this positively if the AI succeeds more than half the time. It's okay if it also has a few games it just can't learn.
scott-alexanders-5-year-predictionsai
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opened · Feb 20, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2028