In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?” at 87%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold.
Resolves positively if there is an AI can learn to play randomly selected computer games (shooters, strategy games, flight simulators, etc) at the level of an amateur but not completely incompetent human player, given only a small amount of time (days, not years) for its programmers to connect it properly, and the opportunity to practice for arbitrary (but achievable) amounts of time. I will resolve this positively if the AI succeeds more than half the time. It's okay if it also has a few games it just can't learn.