Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
As of 20:11 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, Manifold prices “Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?” at 2%. The market has M$100 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, Gemini and Opinion.
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership. If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader. If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader. See also: @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-88b203241f22 @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-5440920441a8 @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-dc30a08f527f @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-ad388d2ec732 @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-ff7f812901f1
