Who wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?

·World·ends Dec 31, 2029

Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member. Will that occur? Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025. Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member. This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders. Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification: An incursion or seizure of even a limited part of a NATO member’s territory (for example, a small part of Latvia) will resolve as a yes if it is on a scale comparable to significant military actions (such as the 2014 Crimean war or, as noted, an incursion similar to Ukraine’s invasion into the Kursk region).