Question 1

What is the current probability for "After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?": Kyiv (oblast) 91%, Chernihiv 91%, Odessa 90% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 2/1/2030.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/K5CPmDn4Dlh2Y26YYNex. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?

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