Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
As of 17:51 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war” at 35% (-3pp in 24h). The market has M$225 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
Before February 24th 2022, the administration of the Donbas region was split between the LPR, the DPR, and Ukraine. Part of the announced goals of the Russian invasion is to gain control of the entire region. This market resolves to yes if 1) a peace treaty is signed between Ukraine and Russia 2) the treaty requires Ukraine to relinquish control over the entire Donbas region. Picture for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#/media/File:Map_of_Donbas_region.svg
