Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

Manifold·World

UkraineRussia

As of 12:38 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?” at 18%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea. Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.