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Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

Manifold·World
UkraineRussia
19%
vol cum
M14.5k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2030
YES 19¢
NO 81¢

Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea. Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.

timeline
opened · May 14, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? · prices over time
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