Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 22:33 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, Manifold prices “Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?” at 83%. The market has M$5 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Gemini and Polymarket.

83%

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Jan 16, 2029

Will a US Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term? Only includes retirements, not deaths, impeachments, or other removals or changes (e.g. court expansion). Resolves NO when Donald Trump’s second term ends, and N/A if he never begins a second term.