Which AI future will we get?
As of 11:40 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, “Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues” leads “Which AI future will we get?” on Manifold at 38%, followed by “AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues” at 25% and “Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"” at 21%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi and Manifold.
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI. I will try my best to resolve the market in the future, but realistically this is as much an opinion poll as a prediction market. I will use the market probabilities as a Schelling point for how to resolve it, but I may deviate from them if I judge that they are mistaken or manipulated. If none of them apply, the market resolves to the closest option I can round it to. If we have an edge case, the market may resolve to a PROB mixture.
