Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
As of 05:22 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?” at 5%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict and Manifold.
Resolves YES if during the US Presidential term starting January 2025, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President. The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question. The President invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count. The President exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count - in that event, the question resolves NO immediately, i.e. the President's successor does not count for the question. (Original pre-election title: Will the next President be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?)
