What is the current probability for "What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?"?

Current Manifold odds for "What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?": We're the first and/or only intelligent life in our light cone 39%, The "Grabby Aliens" hypothesis 29%, Something else 21% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 5/15/2077.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/NyA5UxR0NvsVc2yIEfIs. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event6 outcomes

What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?

·Science and Technology·ends May 15, 2077

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Parallel to this market, but with different options. https://manifold.markets/lukalot/solution-for-the-fermi-paradox And I'm stealing the criteria: "Resolves when a solution to the Fermi Paradox is widely agreed upon in the scientific community in response to empirical evidence." For context, the "Grabby Aliens" hypothesis is here for those who haven't heard of it: https://grabbyaliens.com

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We're the first and/or only intelligent life in our light cone

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