Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via: Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR Resignation Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation) Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs. Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO. The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only. Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump uses military force against Greenland and is later impeached/removed or resigns over a seemingly separate issue, the market will still resolve YES. The creator will not attempt to determine whether the Greenland action played any role in shifting political will toward removal, even if another issue appears to dominate the impeachment/resignation. Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via the 25th Amendment would resolve NO. The market only counts removal through impeachment/conviction or resignation.
