What is the current probability for "Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?"?

"YES" is currently 28% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?

·Science and Technology

28%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M51k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2028

YES 28¢

NO 72¢

Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2029. Multiple choice: @/plsdelete/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo @/PlasmaBallin/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ @/lastuserhere/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-th @/BoltonBailey/in-which-year-will-humans-next-walk @/bitSanjay/what-year-will-spacex-land-on-the-m @/predyx_markets/when-will-spacex-land-on-the-moon <2025: @/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th @/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b @/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d ‌ <2026: @/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land@/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45@/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human @/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on @/JohnChristou/will-nasa-and-spacex-succeed-with-i ‌ @/BillMotz/will-nasas-artemis-program-land-ast @/WillUrbanski/will-a-manned-mission-successfully @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d <2027: @/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033 @/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the @/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be @/theok/will-nasa-land-on-the-moon-by-2027 @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-7178da6928ae <2028: @/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20@/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor @/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x @/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48 <2029: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-66e3082483e6 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e <2030: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-f1c55d0c835c @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec 2030 or later: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6 @/GavinKovite/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-betwe @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504 See also: @/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun @/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882 Artemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026

timeline

opened · Apr 9, 2023opencloses · Dec 31, 2028

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