Will something happen in 2026?
This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026 Leader Exits Donald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.) Vladimir Putin leaves office Xi Jinping leaves office Geopolitical & Unexpected Events China invades or blockades Taiwan Enemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations) USA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD OpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally New major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled) Nuclear bomb detonation above ground Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce Quantum computing breakthrough ("Q-Day") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic S&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak Sam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks Washington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state AI directly causes one of the following: Death(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement) Discovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages Solves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page) Celebrity Deaths MrBeast Taylor Swift Timothée Chalamet Zendaya Billie Eilish Lionel Messi Cristiano Ronaldo Travis Kelce Kanye West Pope Leo XIV Major US Tragedies Mass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day Mass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state Natural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state Politics & Supreme Court SCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship One party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms A Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States ~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding "AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)" criterion: AI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death Autonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event) Intentional AI drone killings do NOT count AI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count DOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human) Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only events specifically listed in the description will count for resolution. Other unexpected events, even if comparable in significance, will not resolve this market YES.
