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Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold·World
As of 19:20 UTC on 7 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?” at 7%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Myriad and Kalshi.
7%
vol cum
M37.7k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2027
YES 7¢
NO 93¢
The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.
timeline
opened · Mar 17, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2027
