How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

·Politics·ends Jan 4, 2027

I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.