How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
As of 13:38 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, “56” leads “How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?” on Manifold at 96%, followed by “Other” at 3% and “55” at 1%, out of 14 outcomes. The event has M$36 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.
