What is the current probability for "If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?"?

"YES" is currently 49% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/1/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/IuzqzI29AL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?

·Politics

United States

49%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M2.8k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 1, 2026

YES 49¢

NO 51¢

"win the House" == when counting all voting representatives who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a majority "win the Senate" == when counting all voting senators who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a full majority (51+)

timeline

opened · Jul 29, 2026opencloses · Dec 1, 2026

If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

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