Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)” at 32%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

32%

vol cum

M7.9k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2029

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent) PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.