Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?
Will one AI lab establish a clear, sustained lead over all competitors over core AI capabilities (not necessarily business success) before the end of 2027, according to my judgment as market creator? "Pulling ahead" is inherently subjective; I don't think there is a single metric I would trust to capture what I mean, but the type of thing I would expect is a lab getting a much higher score on something like Epoch Capabilities Index versus the next best model from competitors, and it being generally understood that other labs cannot catch up. This market is about AI capabilities, not revenue, consumer reach, or business distribution. It could be that an AI lab has a less powerful model but more revenue, and that wouldn't affect this market.