pdatanews288
event8 outcomes

AI capability growth this year?

Kalshi·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 03:12 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 8 markets in “AI capability growth this year?” on Kalshi are “At least 1520 score” at 99%, “At least 1530 score” at 99% and “At least 1540 score” at 54% (+3pp in 24h). The event has $594 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

vol cum
$325.7k
vol 24h
$594
outcomes
8
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 8
marketselected outcome
At least 1520 score
rank #1 · resolved: yes
99¢
vol cum
$143.5k
vol 24h
$0
spread
1.00
ends
Jan 1, 2027

If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline
opened · Jun 26, 2026closedresolved · Oct 1, 2026
At least 1520 score · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

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