Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
As of 18:22 UTC on 1 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?” at 72%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Criteria for Resolution: 1. Definition of "New Lab": - A "new lab" refers to any company, lab, or other entity that is not OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, Google, Meta, Mixtral, xAI, Microsoft, Nvidia or any subsidiary or parent company of them. 2. Top-Performing Generally Capable AI Frontier Model: - The AI frontier model must achieve no less than a robust second place by performance. This includes: - Unambiguous first place. - Unambiguous second place. - Ambiguous first place. - Sharing first place. - Sharing second place does not qualify. 3. Performance Metrics: - Performance will be judged based on the most well-accepted metrics and user opinions and approvals available by then. - For example, metrics may include benchmarks such as MMLU, HumanEval, and other relevant AI performance benchmarks.
