In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence? I will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI. This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win. Anything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech. If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor. If a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company. If a government or other institution is in the lead, I will ignore them, and judge only the difference between Big Tech and specific companies.
