[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

·World

ChinaTaiwan

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur: Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan. China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard. Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.