What is the current probability for "Will we get AGI before 2037?"?

"YES" is currently 68% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2037.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/S8Y8wDrpfxwriKZKvkTU. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get AGI before 2037?

·Science and Technology

68%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M10k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2037

YES 68¢

NO 32¢

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2037 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other reference points for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid Other questions for 2037: @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-263502d92c27 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829

timeline

opened · Dec 2, 2023opencloses · Mar 1, 2037

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