What is the current probability for "Will brain death be reversible by 2070?"?

"YES" is currently 46% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2070.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/SZyKSIRqsQ4ABT5mG0hW. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

·Science and Technology

46%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M7.4k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2070

YES 46¢

NO 54¢

Using current NHS definition of brain death: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/brain-death/ Brain death (also known as brain stem death) is when a person on an artificial life support machine no longer has any brain functions. If most (say 80%) scientists/physicians in 2070 agree that (under the 2070 testing technology) a human whose brain functions completely stopped came back to life, we'll resolve this to Yes.

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opened · Dec 14, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2070

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