Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?” at 23%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Opinion and Polymarket.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent: This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
