What is the current probability for "Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?"?

"YES" is currently 12% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2034.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/U0QOPUu6ds. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

·Science and Technology

12%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M9k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2034

YES 12¢

NO 88¢

Resolves yes if before 2035 there is a scaled process in use producing gold starting from other elements. The prompt for this question is https://www.marathonfusion.com but it does not have to be this technology. Significant scale will be at least 2 different facilities, each producing at least 1000kg of gold in one year. [link preview]

timeline

opened · Jul 18, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2034

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035? · prices over time

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