Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 18:15 UTC on 7 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?” at 55%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

55%

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M17.2k

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M0

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Jan 1, 2040

It can be a test, but it needs to be a test of commercial mining, not just returning samples for scientific study. The mining on the asteroid must be succcesful, but it doesn't need to make it back to Earth.