What is the current probability for "Will we get AGI before 2040?"?

"YES" is currently 72% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2040.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/srlaR1wDLUCU8lej269R. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get AGI before 2040?

·Science and Technology

72%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M12.7k

vol 24h

M26

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2040

YES 72¢

NO 28¢

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2040 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2040: @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-b0c572503bb2 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-31e87dc6b88e @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-j @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-ad792ee08c79 @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-771d244be93f @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p ‌ @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-c07a9e6b1dc2 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-f77ec20323dc @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-e0ab80586ff5 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198 @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-92c888722442 Other reference points for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

timeline

opened · Dec 11, 2023opencloses · Mar 1, 2040

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