What is the current probability for "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?"?

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?" from manifold. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/2/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/WMy2Vb6KrQQ0HyRHPMI8. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Source: manifold·Event ID: WMy2Vb6KrQQ0HyRHPMI8·Ends: 7/2/2026

Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it). It's very silly to bet people over 25%. In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely. I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it. Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).