If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
As of 08:01 UTC on 5 Jun 2026, “UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities” leads “If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?” on Manifold at 21%, followed by “Aliens” at 15% and “EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering” at 14%, out of 18 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This market is intended to aggregate the most likely reasons why UFO's have word-view shattering origins (for Eliezer Yudkowsky), and reward those who thought of them first. In most worlds, I expect this market to resolve "N/A", but who doesn't like the idea of finding the best conspiracy theory. I will resolve it to the answer that closest/most specificly details why, so long as it was posted prior to the "worldview shattering event" becoming public knowledge. If my resolution appears to controversial, I am quite happy to let a group of trustworthy-ish users/admins re-resolve it. This question resolves N/A if Eliezer wins this bet: (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD)Kudos to @Joshua's market for bringing this bet to my attention. Feel free to ask questions in the comments - if they are insightful or they help me clean up this market, I'll pay cold, hard Ṁ.
