What is the current probability for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by December 31?": December 31 6%, September 30 3%, March 31 0% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/90177. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$64.1M

vol 24h

$149.8k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

AliensPoliticsCultureScience

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

United States

6¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$36.5M

vol 24h

$33.9k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

timeline

opened · Nov 25, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

December 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

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