Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" from manifold. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/SzSuIPsR60. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Markets

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?