What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?": Before Jan 20, 2029 21%, Before 2028 16%, Before December 6% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/20/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXALIENS-27. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event9 outcomes

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

·Science and Technology·ends Jan 20, 2029

vol cum

$34.3M

vol 24h

$448.8k

outcomes

ends

Jan 20, 2029

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 20, 2029

rank #1

United States

21¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$490.8k

vol 24h

$5.2k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 20, 2029

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · May 12, 2026opencloses · Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 20, 2029 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history