What is the current probability for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"?

"YES" is currently 6% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/lEzIAQz2pL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

marketsingle market

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

·Science and Technology

United States

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M7.9k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

YES 6¢

NO 94¢

Update 2026-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve YES if someone in the government of the US (someone that represents the US, such as the President) publicly confirms that aliens exist before 2027.

timeline

opened · Feb 19, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history