Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 22:36 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?” at 96%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

96%

vol cum

M20.1k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2029

Will Resolve yes if an AI is able to score more than 100 IQ points on an offical IQ re test about problem solving. If the IQ test contains questions that are just about retained knowlege (like "who was the president in 2011") it wont count. Will Resolve no if it does'nt resolve yes. This market will predict whether or not artificial intelligence will out-perform humans in the area of problem solving.