Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?
As of 22:11 UTC on 10 Sep 2026, “2029 or later” leads “Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?” on Manifold at 83%, followed by “1st half 2026” at 4% and “First half 2025” at 4%, out of 11 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Gemini and Kalshi.
Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: The market will resolve by a poll after the next public meltdown by Elon Musk. A qualifying meltdown must be public and captured on camera or recorded in media (excluding Twitter). This determination will be based on the perception of it being a very public, unhinged meltdown. Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to the 'Other' Option: The Other option is defined as any point in time not covered by the other specific options. Update 2025-03-23 (PST): - Meltdown Timing: The qualifying meltdown for 'He already did' must have occurred prior to market creation. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the market will not be fully resolved after the first qualifying meltdown. Instead, the market will remain open until its close date in 2029. If a qualifying meltdown occurs, it may trigger a partial resolution for that time period. This allows for the possibility of multiple partial resolutions for different answers over the lifetime of the market. Dear @traders, at the suggestion of @Quroe, I temporarily unlisted the market as the poll is underway to prevent market manipulation. However, that seems to have deleted all the comments. Would appreciate if @mods can work on this issue. This is the poll in question: https://manifold.markets/Lorelai/did-musks-early-june-implosion-coun Update July 3: Market is listed again, will remain open for now.
