Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?": The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60 92%, Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026 92%, The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap 91% (top 3 of 17 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 2/14/2029.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/Zu9s8dhNzq. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

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