Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?
Resolution Criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, the United States federal government implements any form of capital control that significantly restricts the free flow of capital into or out of the country, with the following specifications: What WOULD count for YES resolution: Broad-based restrictions on U.S. citizens or residents transferring money abroad (e.g., annual limits on total foreign transfers per person) General limits on foreign investment in U.S. assets that apply to multiple countries or regions Mandatory approval processes for capital outflows above a certain threshold that apply universally New taxes or fees specifically designed to discourage capital movement across borders (e.g., a "Tobin tax" on financial transactions) Restrictions on currency conversion for U.S. citizens or residents Implementation of a dual exchange rate system Mandatory repatriation of foreign earnings by U.S. corporations Restrictions on Americans purchasing foreign securities What would NOT count for YES resolution: Targeted sanctions against specific countries (e.g., restrictions on investment in Russia, Iran, etc.) Sanctions against individual entities or persons Enhanced reporting requirements that don't actually restrict capital movement Anti-money laundering or anti-terrorism financing measures National security reviews of foreign investment (like CFIUS) unless substantially expanded to cover most capital flows Country-specific restrictions affecting fewer than 10 countries, unless those countries collectively represent more than 50% of global GDP Temporary emergency measures lasting less than 10 days The capital controls must be implemented by executive order, legislation, or formal regulation by a federal agency with appropriate authority, not merely proposed or under consideration. The market resolves to NO if no qualifying capital controls as described above are implemented by the end of December 31, 2028. Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a 1% remittance tax on cash transfers (as passed by the House) would qualify for YES resolution if it goes into effect, even though the creator considers this a "really minimal capital control."
