US defaults on debt by 2027?
As of 05:42 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “US defaults on debt by 2027?” at 2%. The market has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world matches it to “US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?” on Manifold, priced at 2%. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, Opinion and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
