US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
As of 15:07 UTC on 5 Sep 2026, Manifold prices “US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?” at 2%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world matches it to “US defaults on debt by 2027?” on Polymarket, priced at 2%. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Gemini and Opinion.
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027. The default must involve at least $100 million USD in missed payments. If the US restructures, delays, or partially reduces payments specifically on Chinese-held debt while maintaining payments to other creditors, this will be considered a selective default and resolve as YES.
