Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Resolves YES if at any point in time, I can legally, from a computer in the continental US connected directly to the internet with no VPN, without entering any information that suggests that I am not in the US, bet at least $100 in a prediction market where winners can easily cash out whatever currency the market uses into real USD in their (US) bank account. Resolves NO on resolution date if the YES criterion has not been met. UPDATE 3/12 17:13 EST: Adding the requirement that I can easily create a market on any reasonable question for $100 or less. "Easily" means the question goes up within one business day of me posting it. The $100 maximum cost includes any membership I would need to get, as well as time cost if the process takes longer than 5 minutes. For these purposes, I'll value my time at $1/minute. Here is the sha256 hash of the question I will try to make a market on for resolution of this market: 28fe37ef210c1eb6de6d40da049a59b977fc08e591d904c8d1f4adbaf4545da4 It is in a similar reference class to "Will Sam Altman still be the CEO of OpenAI in one week?" i.e. it's easily publicly verifiable and resolves a week after posting. If you bet "yes" on this market before I updated, you can sell any number of those YES shares, and if you message me with screenshots of the transactions, I'll refund your losses, up to 100 mana per person. You must sell your shares in order to get a refund Update 3/13 01:17 EST: I forgot to save the exact original text of my question. Here is the hash of the same question worded differently. I saved it in a txt file this time. 5fa730f5f234b6d5ee6d53bd8f32d815c0ea9633c56be316bacfb2474f732460 UPDATE 4/24 17:12 EST: IF YOU WANT A REFUND (SEE ABOVE), SELL YOUR SHARES BEFORE JUNE 1ST, 2024.
